Legia Warszawa vs Zagłębie Lubin

Mileta Rajović is the story of Legia Warszawa's start to the season — for the wrong reasons. The Danish striker, still the most expensive signing in the club's history at €3m, hasn't scored in his last seven official matches and opened this campaign the same way he closed the last one: creating good positions and failing to finish them, including a bizarre disallowed "goal" against Pogoń Szczecin where he turned the ball in with his hand. Backing him to score against Zagłębie Lubin at odds of 2.25 is a bet on regression to the mean rather than on current form — but there are several genuine reasons to think today could be the day.

Why I like it

• The service keeps coming, even when the finishing doesn't. Against Pogoń in round one, Rajović had 8 touches in the opposition box and got off 5 shots, 3 of them on target, without scoring. That's a striker being found regularly, not one who's been starved of chances — the underlying process supports a goal arriving soon.
• Papszun keeps picking him and keeps talking him up. In the build-up to this exact fixture, head coach Marek Papszun repeated that he has patience and trust in Rajović, pointedly noting that the striker played a key role in the buildup to the winning goal against Pogoń even though he didn't score it himself. A manager publicly protecting a struggling striker's confidence right before kick-off is often followed by that player being kept in a central attacking role with license to keep shooting.
• Zagłębie's goalkeeping situation is a gift for a target man. Regular starter Zlatan Alomerović is out injured for this game, and his intended deputy Dominik Hładun has been out for weeks with a shoulder issue — leaving either a 17-year-old debutant or a 39-year-old only just back from injury between the posts. Rajović is a physically imposing, 1.92m target forward, and Legia have scored more headed goals than any other side in the league this season. An unsettled, inexperienced goalkeeper dealing with crosses and knockdowns from a big, direct No. 9 is exactly the matchup that could produce his goal.
• He has penalty pedigree, and Legia should get chances to attack the box. Rajović has been Legia's first-choice penalty taker this year (he missed one against Korona Kielce back in February, but was still the club's designated taker in that game), and with Legia likely to dominate territory and force Zagłębie's makeshift back line into mistakes, the door is open for a spot kick or a stray-arm/handball-type incident to fall his way again — this time for him.
• He has scored against this exact type of opponent before. His last goals in Ekstraklasa football came in a brace away at Pogoń Szczecin in April — proof that when Legia create enough of a platform, he is capable of finishing more than once in a game. The underlying talent clearly hasn't disappeared; it's been a finishing slump, not a loss of goalscoring instinct.

The risk

The counter-case is straightforward and shouldn't be dismissed: Zagłębie's defence was genuinely solid in round one, keeping a clean sheet against Piast Gliwice and allowing just two shots on target and one clear chance all match. Several Polish tipsters are actively backing Rajović not to score today, pointing to that defensive discipline combined with his own current finishing form as a strong "no goal" case. His touch in the final third has been shaky enough recently that even presentable, one-on-one type situations aren't a guarantee — the handball against Pogoń is a good example of a player whose decision-making under pressure in the box currently looks scrambled rather than composed. There's also a chance Papszun eventually turns to a substitute (Zjawiński, in strong pre-season scoring form, is pushing him for minutes) if Rajović endures another quiet first hour.

Still, weighing the sheer volume of service he's getting, the coach's public backing right before this match, and — most importantly — the makeshift, inexperienced goalkeeper he'll be facing today, the odds of 2.25 look generous enough to take a stake on Rajović finally breaking his drought.

*the bet is won if Mileta Rajović scores one or more goals for Legia Warszawa at any point in the match, regardless of the final result